Neues Bewertungsmodell für selbststeuernde Systeme

Bei der Ermittlung des objektivierten Unternehmenswertes ist die dem Unternehmen innewohnende und übertragbare Ertragskraft zu bewerten. Die Erkenntnis, dass diese Ertragskraft von den Fähigkeiten des Managements zur Lenkung des zu bewertenden Unternehmens abhängig ist, erscheint trivial. Nicht trivial sind angesichts des verstärkt zu beobachtenden Scheiterns herkömmlicher Managementkonzepte Antworten auf die Frage nach dem Umgang mit  Komplexität.

Die Idee der Selbststeuerung komplexer Systeme kann als Fundament für neue Konzepte zur Führung von Unternehmen dienen.

Christine Wycisk hat ihre Dissertation mit dem Titel

Flexibilität durch Selbststeuerung in logistischen Systemen

veröffentlicht.

Die Arbeit von Christine Wycisk ist enorm wichtig. Bisherige Management - Konzepte, die analytisch - konstruktivistisch ausgerichtet sind, werden der zunehmend komplexer werdenden Unternehmenswelt nicht mehr gerecht. Die zahlreichen Insolvenzen großer und namhafter Unternehmen (Lehman Brothers, GM, Hypo Real Estate, Quelle usw.) offenbaren diesen Mangel. Das Prinzip der Selbststeuerung ist aufgrund seiner Flexibilität erheblich besser für eine hochgradig vernetzte Welt geeignet.

Eine ausführliche Besprechung dieses Buches folgt in den nächsten Tagen.

Evidence to End the Fed

Moritz SCHULARICK
Free University of Berlin (FUB)

Alan M. TAYLOR

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

November 2009

NBER Working Paper No. w15512

Abstract

The crisis of 2008-09 has focused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. In this paper we study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a newly constructed historical dataset for 12 developed countries over the years 1870-2008, utilizing the data to study rare events associated with financial crisis episodes. We present new evidence that leverage in the financial sector has increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century as shown by a decoupling of money and credit aggregates, and we also find a decline in safe assets on banks' balance sheets. We also show for the first time how monetary policy responses to financial crises have been more aggressive post-1945, but how despite these policies the output costs of crises have remained large. Importantly, we can also show that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that such crises are credit booms gone wrong and that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. It is only with the long-run comparative data assembled for this paper that these patterns can be seen clearly.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

JEL Classifications: E44, E51, E58, G01, G20, N10, N20

Working Paper Series

Fed Debates New Role: Bubble Fighter

By Jon Hilsenrath

Not so long ago, Federal Reserve officials were confident they knew what to do when they saw bubbles building in prices of stocks, houses or other assets: Nothing.

Now, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a confirmation hearing Thursday on a second four-year term, he and others at the central bank are rethinking the hands-off approach they've followed over the past decade. On the heels of a burst housing-and-credit bubble, Mr. Bernanke now calls financial booms "perhaps the most difficult problem for monetary policy this decade."

With Asian property prices soaring and gold prices busting records almost daily, the debate comes at a critical time. Mr. Bernanke wants to use his powers as a bank regulator to stamp out bubbles, but the Senate Banking Committee, which will grill him later this week, is considering stripping the Fed of its regulatory power.

... read more 

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