Montag, 10. Mai 2010

Sovereign Risk Monitor May 2010

May 10, 2010

The CMA Sovereign Risk Monitor identifies and ranks the world’s most volatile sovereign debt issuers according to percentage changes in their 5 year CDS. The countries are ranked by their cumulative probability of default (CPD), which gives the market's assessment of an issuer's likelihood of default over the life of a CDS contract. So, if a country has a 20% CPD rating for its five-year CDS contracts, the market believes this debt has a two-in-ten chance of defaulting in the next five years.

Highest Default Probabilities

Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)

Argentina 1025.10 48,99

Venezuela 985.30 48.49

Greece 711.85 43.88

Pakistan 724.00 38.69

Ukraine 647.80 36.14

Dubai, Emirate of 442.90 26.31

Latvia 388.20 23.55

Sicily/Region of290.7022.29

Iraq 355.30 22.16

Portugal 274.43 21.06

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