The CMA Sovereign Risk Monitor identifies and ranks the world’s most volatile sovereign debt issuers according to percentage changes in their 5 year CDS. The countries are ranked by their cumulative probability of default (CPD), which gives the market's assessment of an issuer's likelihood of default over the life of a CDS contract. So, if a country has a 20% CPD rating for its five-year CDS contracts, the market believes this debt has a two-in-ten chance of defaulting in the next five years.
Highest Default Probabilities
| Entity Name | Mid Spread | CPD (%) |
| Argentina | 1025.10 | 48,99 |
| Venezuela | 985.30 | 48.49 |
| Greece | 711.85 | 43.88 |
| Pakistan | 724.00 | 38.69 |
| Ukraine | 647.80 | 36.14 |
| Dubai, Emirate of | 442.90 | 26.31 |
| Latvia | 388.20 | 23.55 |
| Sicily/Region of | 290.70 | 22.29 |
| Iraq | 355.30 | 22.16 |
| Portugal | 274.43 | 21.06 |
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