3. Stufe der Systhemtheorie für 2010 erwartet

Dr. Takashi Iba hatte 2008 einen Ausblick auf die Entwicklung der Systemtheorie gegeben und etwa für das Jahr 2010 deren 3. Stufe erwartet:

Seine Erläuterungen:

At 1970s, 1st Stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" was started. The scientists focused on nonlinear system and studied complex behaviors from deterministic simple rules. At the stage, key concepts are "chaos" and "fractal", and major method is numerical simulation. It can be said that the target is just only one system.

2nd Stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" started at 1990s. The scientists focused on complex adaptive system and studied emergent order from interactions. At the stage, key concepts are "evolution" and "learning", and major methods are cellular automata and multi-agent simulation.

In mid of 1990s, new area called "Network Science" was emerged from physics. The scientists focused on the structural asymmetry of relations or interactions, and studied the emergent order of structural connections. New concepts like "scale-free network" and "small-world network" were proposed. It was also related to "power-law distribution", "phase transition", and "history". Additional finding is the viewpoint of hidden order of co-occurrences. The major method were very-large data analysis and simulation.

Another new area was "Econophysics", which was also emerged from physics. The scientists focused on non-equilibrium dynamics, and studied emergent order of temporal fluctuations. The key concepts are related to "power-law distribution", "phase transition", and "self-organized criticality" especially in economic phenomena. They also emphasize "irreversibility" and "history". Econophysics is highly related to Network Science.

In my view, 3rd stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" are going to emerge in near future, maybe around 2010, based on 2nd stage of "The Science of Complex Systems", "Network Science", and "Econophysics". The scientists claim that massiveness is needed in the study of complex adaptive system. And Network scientists pointed out that the next challenge is "evolving dynamics of structure". In addition, Econophysics seems to be needed "evolving structure of dynamics" along the temporal fluctuation.

At the new stage, it will incorporate "Autopoietic System Theory" and "Quantum Mechanics". "Autopoietic System Theory" is thought about system as self-referential existence. The important feature is "momentary element" and "contingency". "Quantum Mechanics" is thought about wave-particle duality. The important feature is "creation and annihilation of quantum" and "uncertainty".


Well, I won't sit idly by the future, but pursue the research and contribute toward the future. In concluding this article, I would like to quote my favorite word by Alan Kay; "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."